'I'd be wanting to wait for a week or two before we draw really strong conclusions about this'
www.telegraph.co.uk
Senior scientists have expressed disquiet that data showing an increased risk of mortality from the new UK variant of Covid-19 was published before detailed analysis of the findings took place.
The data, presented by the
Prime Minister at Friday’s Downing Street briefing, showed the new variant may be deadlier than the original strain, with the potential to kill 30 per cent more infected people.
However, several scientists said on Saturday that it was too early to draw “strong conclusions” from the suggested increased mortality rates from the new strain.
Dr Mike Tildesley, a member of Sage subgroup the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling (Spi-M), said: "I was actually quite surprised the news had been announced at a news conference. It seems to have gone up a little bit from about 10 people per thousand to about 13, which is quite a small rise but it's based on a relatively small amount of data.
"I would be wanting to wait for a week or two more, monitoring a little bit more before we draw really strong conclusions about this. I just worry that where we report things pre-emptively where the data are not really particularly strong."
Public Health England (PHE) medical director Dr Yvonne Doyle said it is still not "absolutely clear" the new variant coronavirus,
which appeared late last year in south-east England, is more deadly than the original strain.
She said more work was needed to determine whether it may be associated with "a higher degree of mortality" as stated by Borish Johnson.
"It is too early to say," she told the BBC Radio 4 Today programme. "There is some evidence, but it is very early evidence. It is small numbers of cases and it is far too early to say this will actually happen."
Scientists have pointed out that while the new variant shows a relative increase in mortality rates, the absolute risks for older people are far higher than for those in lower age brackets.
For those in their 60s the risk of dying if infected with Covid-19 goes from 10 people in every 1,000 under the old variant, to 13 in a 1,000 with the new strain.
However, for those in their 80s the risk of dying increases more significantly, going from 80 in a 1,000 to 100 in 1,000, and for those in their 90s from 200 in a 1,000 to 270 in 1,000.
By contrast, the risk of dying goes up only marginally for those in their 40s, rising from 2 in 1000 with the old strain to 2.5 in 1,000 with the new strain.
Prof David Spiegelhalter, Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk, told The Telegraph: “Based on the findings there is a huge difference in the impact of the new strain depending on how old you are.”
The statistician added that the impact of the new variant on mortality rates, even on the most vulnerable groups, will be lessened as more people
receive their Covid-19 vaccines.
“If we weren't getting such coverage now of older, more vulnerable people, it would be very bad news. As it is, the impact is going to be limited,” he said.
Even one of the co-authors of the report highlighting the higher mortality rates associated with the new variant appeared to downplay its significance on Saturday.
Prof Graham Medley, co-author of the report by the Government's New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group (Nervtag), said it was not a "game changer" in terms of dealing with the pandemic.
"The question about whether it is more dangerous in terms of mortality I think is still open. There is evidence it is more dangerous but this is a very dangerous virus," he said.
“In terms of making the situation worse it is not a game changer. It is a very bad thing that is slightly worse."
Prof Peter Horby, who chairs Nervtag, said the new data should be put “in perspective” but should still be taken seriously.
"There are a number of streams of data that are coming in that suggest there might be a small increase in risk of death," he told BBC Breakfast.
"There are some limitations in the data so we need to be cautious with the interpretations, but it is important that people understand that we are looking at this and this may be true.
"If you look at it as a relative change like 30 per cent or 40 per cent, then it sounds really bad, but a big change in a very small risk takes it from a very small number to a slightly bigger, but still very small, number. So, for most people the risk is very, very small.”
Prof Horby defended the Government's decision to announce the news about the mortality rates from the new variant.
"Scientists are looking at the possibility that there is increased severity... and after a week of looking at the data we came to the conclusion that it was a realistic possibility," he said.
"We need to be transparent about that. If we were not telling people about this we would be accused of covering it up."
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