Robin Horsfall
Ukraine is not on the defensive.
Ukraine it taking the war to Russia. One might be mistaken for believing that because of a static, land war situation that Ukraine is lost for alternatives. In reality, Ukraine is hitting at the heart of Russian power, the gas and oil industry.
Russia has been called 'a gas station on the edge of Europe'. For twenty years Russia developed its economy on profits from hydrocarbons. The country grew rich, standards of living rose and new freedoms appeared to for people once under the heel of Communism.
Prior to invading Ukraine in 2021, Russia built up a national wealth fund of 170 billion dollars with a further 300 billion in western banks . This war chest combined with continued sales made Putin feel invulnerable.
Two years later the wealth fund is down by two thirds, indicating that if something doesn't change Russia's reserves of cash will be gone at the end of 2024. Russia has reduced its production rates of oil by one million barrels per day. This might be caused by an inability to store product that it cannot sell. Russia has cancelled all gasoline (petrol) exports, indicating it needs all it has to run its economy and its war. The Ruble has collapsed, no other countries including Russia's best clients, India and China, will trade in the Ruble.
Now, Ukraine is increasing strikes on gas and oil infrastructure inside Russia with long range drones, special forces attacks and local partisans. In the past two years Exon Mobile, BP and Shell have withdrawn, and no longer provide the expertise required to repair damaged installations and worn out technology. When vital high tech equipment is damaged. often it cannot be replaced
In the past month Ukraine has hit seventeen oil and gas facilities all over western Russia at ranges of up to 1000 km from Ukraine's border, one close to St Petersburg. Although Russian reports indicate no casualties and systems up and running in a short time, these all add to production problems.
These attacks hit the Russian pocket, and as a result their ability to maintain war. No oil and gas, no money. No money, no food, no pay, no manufacturing, no war.
War, once engaged over a long period of time is a battle of economies as well as armies. Despite the foot dragging of the Republican Party of the USA, reamaining allies defending democracy can outspend Russia a hundred times.
Ukraine is taking the war to Russia in a strategic manner that costs fewer lives and contributes substantially to a Ukrainian victory.
Slava Ukraini!
Who Dares Shares
Robin Horsfall