"Russia views [Pokrovsk] capture as a strategic goal, opening up advances towards the big cities of Dnipro and Zaporizhia. Ukraine’s great hope was that a surprise Kursk offensive would relieve the pressure. If anything, Russia’s advance has accelerated.
But exhaustion and manpower issues seem to be at the heart of the collapse. “People aren’t made of steel,” says Colonel Pavlo Fedosenko. Ukrainian troops, outnumbered 4:1, aren’t getting any rest, he says. Some stay on the front lines for 30 or 40 days at a time, cramped in foxholes inches from death. “Dublin,” a fighter attached to the 59th brigade south-east of Pokrovsk, knows soldiers who have been in place for more than two months. Two had strokes. Ukraine’s problems are compounded by “idiotic” orders, he says.
Ukraine’s surprise mini-invasion of Russia provokes mixed feelings. Dublin says early successes lifted morale. But it didn’t last. The hope that Russia might respond by moving troops from Pokrovsk has been supplanted by the realisation that it has not. Ukrainian security sources confirm that while Russia has moved troops from other sections of the eastern front line, it reinforced around Pokrovsk. Ukraine meanwhile redeployed special forces units to Kursk, and is patching up the Pokrovsk front with untested formations. “The Russians have figured things out and aren’t taking the bait,” complains Dublin.
The advance has slowed since August 19th, says Oleksandr, a drone commander with the 110th brigade, who watches the battlefield from his screens. But the Russians have a habit of pouncing on weak spots to devastating effect, he warns. It seems only a matter of time before Pokrovsk is crushed like Mariupol, Bakhmut and Avdiivka.
Control of Pokrovsk, and a short advance to the administrative borders of the Donetsk region, might be enough for Vladimir Putin to claim a political victory, and start serious negotiations. It might not. Much will depend on whether Ukraine can hold on to the chunk of Russia it now occupies as a bargaining chip in those future talks."
www.kyivpost.com
