Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Tuesday that if Russia rejected the 30-day U.S.-brokered cease-fire that Ukraine had accepted, “we’ll unfortunately know what the impediment is to peace here.” We knew that before, but now we know even on Mr. Rubio’s terms, as the Kremlin on Thursday said nyet.
President Trump’s envoy, Steven Witkoff, is visiting Moscow, and the Kremlin welcomed him with the back of its hand. Yuri Ushakov, a close adviser to Vladimir Putin, told Russian television that a cease-fire would be “nothing other than a temporary breather for Ukrainian soldiers.” He added, “our goal is long-term peaceful resolution. . . . Steps that imitate peaceful actions are not needed.”
Mr. Putin emerged later to sand the rougher edges off Mr. Ushakov, saying he really wants peace. But it must be a “lasting peace,” and not merely a temporary cease-fire. Mr. Putin said there are “nuances” that require “painstaking research,” and those no doubt include conditions as part of a cease-fire that limit Ukraine’s ability to defend itself.
In other words, Mr. Putin wants the killing to continue until he gets closer to achieving his war aim of subjugating Ukraine.
And killing he continues to do. Since Washington and Kyiv agreed on the cease-fire Tuesday, Russia has launched at least 250 drones and four ballistic missiles targeting Kyiv and other Ukrainian cities. Russian forces are also continuing to advance on Ukrainian positions in the Kursk region in Russia that Ukraine had taken in a surprise offensive in August.
The Russians on Wednesday took the town of Sudzha, and Mr. Putin donned fatigues and visited the region to cheer on his troops. Russia claims to have captured several hundred Ukrainian soldiers, and videos circulating on social media appear to show Russians executing unarmed Ukrainian prisoners. Mr. Putin called the prisoners “terrorists under Russian law.” This violates the Geneva Conventions since Ukrainian soldiers in uniform are legal combatants under the laws of war.
Meanwhile, the Washington Post says a think tank close to Russia’s security service, the FSB, last month produced a report arguing that the Kremlin should stoke divisions between Washington and Europe. Russia could then continue its assault on Ukraine unimpeded.
The Post says the think tank says that if the U.S. agrees to stop arming Ukraine in return for a Kremlin promise not to arm regimes hostile to America, such a commitment from Russia would be “difficult to realize.” No doubt. We can’t vouch for the Post’s reporting, but this has the smell of Kremlin truth and is consistent with Mr. Putin’s behavior
As for Mr. Trump, he somehow detected good news in the Kremlin comments. The President said at the White House that there was “a very promising statement” from Mr. Putin but “it wasn’t complete.” Merely uttering the word “peace” isn’t promising.
With his bludgeoning of Ukraine to make a deal without promises of U.S. aid or security, Mr. Trump has given Mr. Putin every incentive to keep the war going to put himself in the strongest possible position if there ever are serious peace talks. Does Mr. Trump have a Plan B beyond beating up Ukraine to make more unilateral concessions?
Mr. Trump suggested last week that Mr. Putin “wants to get it ended,” referring to the war, and that “in terms of getting a final settlement, it may be easier dealing with Russia.” Nothing Mr. Putin has done or said since Mr. Trump began his war tilt toward Russia suggests that Mr. Putin has any such intention.
Men så er det dette da er det i det hele tatt mulig for Russlands økonomi å stoppe krigen på det nåværende tidspunkt?:
Russia’s economy is creaking under the weight of war, wracked by labour shortages, sanctions, high inflation and record interest rates. But equally, the conflict is its only remaining engine of growth.
After three years of war, nationalist anti-Western propaganda has also become the basis of Putin’s power.
“Putin does not want peace and he’s not going to settle,” says Simon Johnson, MIT professor and former chief economist at the International Monetary Fund (IMF). “He’s enjoying the war. It’s awful. But he doesn’t want to end the war.”
The war economy now makes up between 8pc and 10pc of Russia’s GDP. “For a country that is waging a war not on its own soil, that is a lot,” says Alexander Kolyandr, of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA). The war industry has become the main driver of the Russian economy.
On the surface at least, all this spending is fuelling a strong economy. Russia’s real GDP grew by 3.6pc in 2024, according to the IMF – more than triple the growth seen in Britain last year. Real wages in Russia rose by 9.4pc in 2024, according to Rosstat, the Kremlin’s statistics agency.
But only one business is booming: war.
“The manufacturing industry, which includes the defence industry, was the only sector that showed growth in 2024,” says Alexandra Prokopenko, a fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center who worked at Russia’s Central Bank until 2022.
Russia has doubled production of armoured vehicles, while some ammunition manufacturers have quintupled their output. Manufacturing production jumped by 7.6pc in the first nine months of last year.
But outside sectors directly linked to the military, growth is anaemic at best, says Prokopenko.
“Consumer spending is driven by larger salaries to servicemen or even payouts to casualties,” says Agnia Grigas, of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center.
The war effort is sucking investment and manpower away from the non-military sector, leaving the private sector to shrivel.
“Over time, Russia’s ability to maintain and develop a dynamic non-military economy is being cannibalised,” says Sir Laurie.
“If they ever come to unwinding the war economy, there won’t be the civilian economy left to take up the slack.”
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https://www.telegraph.co.uk/busines...afford-peace-russia-economy-is-hooked-on-war/
The second is about Russia’s longstanding tactic of appearing to agree with ideas then bogging them down in endless negotiation so they never come about, hoping hte other side gets exhausted-- and then just lying about any promises made.,
Vladimir Putin had three options: accept Ukraine’s ceasefire offer, but surrender momentum on the battlefield; reject it and risk antagonising Donald Trump; or try to drag things out so he can continue fighting as long as possible.
He has chosen option three.
By
praising the US president and the idea of stopping the war, he hopes to stay in Mr Trump’s good books. But his immediate raising of “nuances” to discuss should be a red flag.
This is a
classic Russian negotiating tactic – as any diplomat who has been in a room with Sergei Lavrov will tell you.
By breaking every proposal down into an infinite number of constituent parts, he will attempt to appear co-operative while playing for time, bogging down the talks
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/03/13/putin-is-choosing-to-drag-out-the-war-in-ukraine/
www.telegraph.co.uk
) men Trump kan kassera inn ein siger på heimebane der han viser at «hardt og effektivt diplomati» nyttar.
