If the vaccination programme had been rolled out at random, we would expect little difference in non-coronavirus (COVID-19) mortality between the vaccinated and unvaccinated. However, the non-COVID-19 age-standardised mortality rates (ASMRs) shown in Figure 2 (and all-cause ASMRs, included in the reference tables) highlight differences in non-COVID-19 mortality between people with different vaccination status, and these differences are changing over time.
Characteristics other than age, such as health status, level of
deprivation, and ethnicity, may vary between the vaccination groups, and over time as people move groups, because of the selective roll-out of the vaccination programme and differences in uptake. These characteristics can influence mortality rates, especially from causes other than COVID-19. We expect to see a large effect because of health status in particular because of the prioritisation of the clinically extremely vulnerable and those with underlying health conditions for vaccination.